Michael Hammerschlag W
R I T I N G S 401-884-1311
hammerschlag@bigfoot.com fax
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75 Shenandoah Rd
Warwick, RI 02886
by Michael Hammerschlag
The word wafted through the Democratic election night party
like a foul odor, “they’re giving Florida
back”. The celebration had already begun after stunning early news
had given the monstrously important state of Florida to Gore at 7:50pm EST.
Within another hour the key states Michigan and Pennsylvania had followed into
the Gore column and the election was considered all but over. Gore needed only
1 or 2 more small undecided states to sew it up. Previously, CBS’s Dan Rather
had promised to hold off till they were sure, “We would rather be last, than be wrong… if we say somebody’s carried a
state you can pretty much take it to the bank.”
Well, the deposit bounced…. TWICE. First, at 10pm, after GOP
strategist Karl Rove excoriated the networks for calling the state early (before the polls even closed in the Central
Time Zone part of the panhandle), the networks took it back, returning
FL to the undecided column, to the assembled Democrats’ horror, and returning
the entire contest to a crap shoot.
The first problem was
a simple error in translating the exit poll data by Voters News Service, the
sole company that provides instant polling data to all the networks + CNN,
according to a top Democratic operative who knows their operations intimately: “What happened was that the data in from one
of these larger counties was put in, in reverse. When they got the data from
one of these larger counties (Tampa probably), they put Bush’s numbers in for
Gore and Gore’s numbers in for Bush, so if it was a Republican county and they
had Gore winning big, they said, ‘That’s
it. It’s over. He won.’ The VNS
people got the exit polls from the county (precincts) and someone inputted it
into their data base switched.”
“That is not true,” said Lee
C Shapiro, spokesperson for VNS. “There was a data entry error that was made
and corrected after the time of the
Gore projection and well before the
time of the second call. However, she also implied there were more errors.
VNS, in NYC, “is a pool owned and operated by 5 networks
and AP- it was formed 35 years ago to cooperate instead of compete in getting
broad election info”, said Joel Albert, their DC manager. Wasn’t it dangerous
to have only 1 source? “That allows them to concentrate their efforts,” Joel
says, by way of circular reasoning. “There are no checks and balances.. it
means they all make the same mistakes,” says Americans for Democratic Action
head Amy Issacs (the oldest liberal org.). A similar error had allegedly
miscalled the 1996 NH Senate race for Democrat Dick Sweat, when Bob Smith was
the ultimate winner. “The TV station (Ch 9, the only NH station) never
recovered (it’s credibility),” said a NH reporter.
But wouldn’t they
double-check these things on such a crucial state in this crucial election?
“You would think they would,” the operative said, “when you look at something like that and say ‘wait a minute, this is kind of weird.’ 4
people sit (at VNS) and put data in spreadsheets and it’s their job to call
races: 1 person for the House- East, 1 for House- West, 1 for Senate, and 1 for
the President.” The
networks (Fox first) also accepted this data without question, presuming as the
VNS did, that a Gore majority in a Republican district meant a blowout- and
called Florida, (the linchpin of the whole contest) for the Veep at 7:49pm. The
early call could have caused some Bush or Gore voters in Western states to not
vote or make a ‘safe’ vote for Nader,
thinking the contest was already decided (though I’m skeptical of that theory).
“We can eliminate the possibility of such errors and give the West Coast a fair
shot, free of the knowledge of how the rest of the country went,” says
broadcasting eminence Walter Cronkite‡, “by a
change in the election reporting laws to limit the announcement of how any
state goes until all states have voted.”
CBS News Communications Veep
Sandy Genelius confirmed the swapped numbers scenario and contradicted Shapiro:
“In the first call (FL for Gore) we believe it was a data entry error so some
incorrect data got entered in the computer (at VNS). It seemed like a safe call
to make. As more data came in a small sample of the data didn’t really look
like it matched up.”
“Duval County
(Jacksonville) was the county that
there was trouble with- data coming over and not being right,” claimed CBS
polling surveyor Jennifer Depinto.
Duval Elections Operations Mngr Robert Phillips explains: “I called in
my first report (to VNS) at 9pm: Bush
1026, Gore 4302… and I think what they did was add another 3 on the end so they
had 43,023,” a 39,000 vote error.
No one at VNS noticed the 42-fold difference until Phillips made his next
report. “It wouldn’t accept my report because it said I had a vote drop!”
This all happened after the bad call for Gore, but it reinforced their error.
Republican controlled Duval
Co. had huge anomalies: 22,000 overvotes (punched 2 candidates + invalidated),
more than Palm Beach (which had 69% more voters), but they didn’t have
the butterfly ballot. They did
have a 2-page ballot for Pres. and a different 1-page sample ballot that
said “VOTE EVERY PAGE”, which Dem “get out the vote” workers dutifully repeated
to new voters. Half the
27,000 voided ballots (9% of total) were in black districts voting +90% for
Gore. In the 1996 election only 2-4000 were tossed
for overvoting (est.), so the overvote increase was 6 ½ fold, the total voided increase 3 ½ times.
“Statewide there were 184,000 (rejected) overvotes and undervotes (no vote)-
which is an astronomical #- some of them went outside and were interviewed by
VNS (who questioned 1800 at 45 exit polling stations), and that’s what skewed
..their data”, theorized NE Florida Gore chairman Mike Langton. With the 9:20
Duval report the mistake was discovered and an urgent e-mail flashed from VNS
to the networks: “We’re canceling the vote from county 16. The vote is
strange.” With that shock added to
the swapped totals, VNS had lost confidence in their Gore prediction. Starting
at 9:50, the networks threw Florida back into the undecided pool.
The donkeys were sent back
down into the darkening canyon. Since it was virtually impossible for either
candidate to win without Florida, it was now anybody’s contest.
At 2:16 AM, with Bush leading
by a supposed 47,000 votes in FL, again shockingly early, Fox TV (whose
election coverage mngr, John Ellis, is George Bush’s cousin), followed
within 4 minutes by the other networks, committed the second outrage: calling
the state and the election for Bush. He was president. “BUSH WINS ELECTION”
flashed decisively on the screen. The Gore supporters in Nashville
lapsed into a morose funk, tears streaming down some’s faces, while the throngs
of Bushmen went wild in front of the swirling colored lights of the Austin
capital. That was the way it went as Al Gore called Bush and conceded, motored
to the outside rally an hour + half later in a funeral cortège for his
political ambitions, and was 1-2 minutes
from taking the stage and conceding before his crushed supporters. Had that
happened, it would have been morally impossible to rescind it: Bush could
have screamed Gore was being dishonorable and unmanly, feeding into the endless
erroneous stories about Gore’s honesty. “It would have been exceedingly
difficult (for Gore to retract a public concession),” says Cronkite. [[Even now that blown call, those
2 anointed hours, is what allows George W Bush to act President-elect being
briefed by his cabinet; it has hardened his resistance to the possibility of
losing, and generates the TV questions about when Gore will concede; although
with an electoral (16), popular (~240,000), and likely real lead
(>2000, if a full hand recount is done) in Florida- Gore should wear
the mantle of inevitability.]]
Then the word came in: the FL
Secretary of State’s web page was showing a difference of only 2100 votes. The projections, the holy
polls, taken from a small poll of exit voters, were wrong. Still, Dan fussed and futzed, “Well, we
changed it once, and we’re not going to do it again”. WHAT! Minutes passed as
their amazement grew. Mind you, they were refusing to concede that their PROJECTIONS were less accurate than the
official state returns. Dan’s Texas
roots got the best of him as he suggested Jeb might want to send in Texas
Marshals to impound the ballots, “There’s got to be suggestions beginning to
build that maybe somebody out there is trying to steal an election.” He
instantly backtracked. The numbers narrowed: 1700, 1500, 700, 270 ! At 4
am Rather gave up: “Somebody needs to begin explaining to me why FL has not
been pulled back to the undecided category.” It was a new ball game. On ABC,
normally dapper Peter Jennings was punch drunk, weaving too close to the
cameras and sporadically incoherently,
“We don’t just have egg on our face, we have omelet all over our
suit”. Something stronger, Peter.
Gore, seconds from conceding
his dreams on rotten information, never appeared, and waited for the mess of a
mandatory recount. At that point he was well behind in the total popular vote,
he would go on to win it by ~290,000?
Meanwhile, hard by the lush
Ocala Nat. Forest, 20 mi. W of Daytona in Deland, a silver battery-powered
credit-card sized memory card in an Election System AccuVote 2000 optical
ballot scanning machine had lost its mind, recording negative 16,022 Gore
votes, 8642 extra Bush votes, and ~9888 for the Socialist Workers candidate in one
Volusia Co. precinct (216) that
had only 585 voters (the SW, James Harris, got only 11,000 votes
nationwide). Volusia election supervisor Deannie Lowe recited, “Our county
attorney came to me and said, ‘I just saw the craziest thing: Gore’s total went
backward!’ I said ‘You’re tired, you’re not seeing it
right, that’s impossible’.” The
Deland machine “didn’t upload (over
phone lines) so they brought the whole machine into the office + we directly
uploaded into the computer.” Around 10:10pm, the machine dumped its corrupted
contents: +25,000 net erroneous votes for Bush into the Florida total. “We
discovered what the problem was; after they (the manufacturers in Dallas)
walked us through the process, we fed the ballots through a different machine,
we then hand counted them.. we backed out the bad figures..and.. put in the
good figures” and transmitted the corrected results around 3:15 am, too late to
stop the greatest broadcast error in history.
Washington Post
reports: Tom Rosenstiel,
director of the Project for Excellence in Journalism, said: "The notion
that you'd have the (first) cousin of one presidential candidate . . .
in a position to call a state is unthinkable. Fox's call precipitated all the
other networks' calls. That call--wrong, unnecessary, misguided, foolish--has
helped create a sense that this election went to Bush, was pulled back and he
is waiting to be restored." The monkey see--monkey do style of pack press
coverage had finally provoked a disaster. John W. Ellis IV hadn’t just called
it early; he was in constant phone contact with Jeb (Ellis Bush) and George W.
discussing developments. He was so partisan in his distaste for Clinton/Gore
that he’d resigned from writing columns for the Boston Globe, stating “I
am loyal to my cousin, Gov. George Bush. I put that loyalty ahead of my loyalty
to anyone outside my immediate family.”
The president of Fox News,
Roger Ailes, is a longtime Bush and Republican political strategist: Fox reportedly has a distinctly right-wing bent.
It was as if CNN had sent Mussolini to cover WW2. Cronkite is distressed by the
conflict of interest, “I find it hard to understand. ..We have to recognize
that the (Rupert) Murdoch interests were particularly strong for Bush.”
Incredibly, Murdoch defended Ellis, even his chat line antics with his cousins.
I think the incredible second
bad call, after the outrage of the first, was almost more predicated on the
networks’ desire to wrap it up, to go home to sleep, to stop expensive coverage
for a small audience; rather than an
absolute belief it was the truth. It was simply too early, too close, too
important, too uncertain. After Fox jumped the gun, the lemmings roared over
the cliff, an ultimate example of the risks of pack reporting. “I think that’s
just their desire to be first”, said the Dem operative. Cronkite explained: “When any one of the
competing networks makes a call,.. there is considerable pressure on decision
desks to do something, do something, and they’re inclined to
yield to others’ opinions…They’ve been sitting there biting their nails, just
about to make that call --when the other person makes it, they pile on.” VNS never called the election for
Bush, that was the networks’ call, according to Cronkite. “The networks are
trying to put the onus on VNS, which is a mistake.” Dan Rather did say on Imus, with breathtaking hypocrisy, that
“VNS should be plowed under with salt.” VNS is the networks’ baby. Only
Associated Press, concerned by the large unreported vote in Democratic
precincts, never called the election for Bush. Reportedly, when the
networks did, the actual votes showed Bush had an almost insurmountable lead-
but the numbers were all wrong, including an overestimated remaining vote.
CBS Veep Genelius Friday
conceded nothing in the blown second call: “Many newspapers did the same thing
(blaming the cart for the horse)…. It looked as if Bush had a very safe
lead… that margin became smaller and
smaller. The data coming in took a very bizarre turn in that the gap narrowed
so dramatically, so quickly. That’s highly unusual.” What was unusual was that they apparently put more stock in their
partial projections than the actual numbers. “We want to see if some of the
models that have served us so well…, if they didn’t work this time around. It’s
safe to say, ‘We haven’t seen anything like this before.’” No one has.
Maybe they should be penalized- big time: $3 million apiece for almost hijacking the American Presidency
($10 mil for Fox). They called it wrong 3
times. After the first error they should have been extremely cautious- but
Dan’s early assurance was that of a drunk before he grabs the keys and peels
out. “Most children learn the stove is
hot the first time they touch it,” says ADA’s Issacs acidly. Even afterwards,
their behavior was one of mild chagrin, not groveling humiliation or abject
apology. Rather even said that the candidates had to be tough to play in this
league. Can’t touch us. With all the
mergers, TV networks are America. Louisiana GOP Rep. Billy Tauzin plans
investigating network malfeasance in the election night debacle, though his
focus is a bizarre conspiracy to delay reporting Bush wins, when the most
striking thing about the election map was the vast sea of red. Most networks
have announced investigations; to their credit, CBS included Annenberg School
of Communication head Kathleen Hall Jamison.
But there was another
egregious error the networks made. In a careful reading of news accounts it was
obvious that Gore was surging 2-6% points across the board by Monday morning,
and the last Zogby poll, consistently the most accurate- had Gore ahead
by 1-2 points Nov 6th and 7th. Neither
enormously pertinent facts were mentioned on any broadcast I saw (3-4 networks)
- the candidates went into election night with Bush ahead by 3-5% points on the
networks, creating an expectation- a pressure for his victory that may have
played a part in the 2nd blown call. It’s likely this “shift” was
the numbers returning to where they always really were… or it may have
been reaction to Bush’s drunk driving conviction and attempts to hide it.
“Anything that flew in the face of conventional wisdom.. they ignored,”
criticized Issacs. CBS’s poll had Gore ahead 1% Nov 7, according to their Web
site and pollsters, but I never saw it mentioned on the air.
Polls have been so
squirrelly, so erratic, so erroneous this election, that they threaten the
electoral process. Nov 3-4th, one poll had WA Senator Gorton ahead 50: 42%, 2
days later his opponent (RealNetworks Maria Cantwell, who had spent $10 mil of her own money) was ahead 50:
43%* Huge shift. No, baloney. Lousy
procedures, extreme extrapolation, false assumptions, bad numbers. In the
Presidential race Gore and Bush’s respective numbers whipsawed 16-19 points in a week,
two times. The truth was Bush and Gore were never more than 2 points
apart in the last week, and probably never more than 6 points apart, EVER!!
Issacs thinks flaky
coverage drove the polls: (The networks said) “Bush was up, we had to
knock him down, Gore went up, we knocked him down, we got them even… let’s play
up Nader.” Cronkite is more forgiving: “This race… is so close that I don’t
doubt that there was shifting back and forth.. within a day or 2, with every
development of the campaign.”
In fact, from the extreme
daily variations in polls, it seems pollsters were deliberately accentuating
shifts to make them more marketable. If
the numbers changed radically every day, they could sell them again- “You have
to get these new numbers”. The Gallup USA Today/CNN/et al poll was notorious
for this: it was consistently way off of the others, changed radically daily;
and each participant, applying their own statistical analysis (often twisted by
their biases) would get numbers 2-5 points apart from the same raw numbers. They were also skewed by the small sample in
doing 1-2 day polls instead of the far more reliable 5-day polls that didn’t
show such absurd variations. These worthless polls became THE story, bandied
about like competing Macy Day balloons, while Bush’s mistakes were left
unchallenged. “All of them are looking into a very foggy crystal ball,” Issacs says.
* Incredible, two historic
mistakes were not enough - the damage was non-partisan: in Wa state, Cantwell
was given the TV Senate victory election night, although she
was 3000 votes behind and there were 900,000
votes uncounted (half all votes are absentee) out of 2.4 million total. At
3:18pm Nov 8, MSNBC wizards returned
the contest to undecided, where it should have always been. “It was clearly a
rush to judgment,” griped Gorton spokeswoman Heidi Kelly. “Our NBC affiliate
(KING-5 Seattle) pushed hard not to call it… and never did.”- a local station
wiser and more cautious than it’s parent. Until Nov 21 Gorton led, but Cantwell finished with a 1953 vote lead-
after a mandatory recount Cantwell won by 2250, leaving the Senate 50/50 or
49/51 (Lieberman’s loss or Cheney Veepship would swing it to Repub, but 2
elderly Republican Senators could retire or die this term in states with Dem
Gov.).
Mistakes can and will happen-
VNS wasn’t really at fault here (they actually have a stellar record of accuracy),
but the networks’ pathological reliance on polls and destructive urge to tell
the news before it happens. Television networks have a moral, journalistic, and
perhaps legal obligation to wait and get it right when it comes to
changing the will of the people. “Let’s get off this unseemly haste,” implores
Cronkite. This insidious policy of hiring hard-core partisans as reporters,
analysts or hosts (or election night supervisors) should be curtailed. We
shouldn’t kill the messenger, unless he’s carrying lies.
Copyright © 2000
Michael Hammerschlag
Michael
Hammerschlag has written media criticism for Columbia Journalism Review;
commentaries for Providence Journal, Seattle Times, Honolulu Advertiser,
Moscow News, Tribune, + Guardian;
and was a TV reporter and produced a documentary series on the
Presidential primary campaign. His web
page is at http://mikehammer.tripod.com.
This
article was produced with the cooperation of reporters from the Daytona Beach
News/Journal and the Jacksonville Times/Union.
Optional
‡Author’s
Note: Walter Cronkite, 84, is still
sharp and active: lecturing, writing, and doing specials for Discovery. We got to chatting about our time in Russia-
he was there from 1946-49 as UPI chief during the worst period of the Cold War,
when foreigners were routinely disappeared in the mass murders; while I was
there at the best time in the last 1000 years- 1991-94, when the people were
intoxicated with the collapse of the Communist party, loved Americans, and a
penny was worth a dollar. "We were frightened that we might be thrown in
the Lubyanka any day... One of our number was charged with espionage – he was
turned in by his secretary who they arrested and co-opted and, Oh boy, we were
very concerned we all were going to get picked up."
Cronkite is worried about the lasting effects of the
Florida foul-ups, “People must look with considerable skepticism on their own
voting procedures… I thought about my own vote. My gosh, did I pull that lever
correctly, did I punch the right buttons on that thing, and if I did, were
they counted? It places a serious impediment on people’s confidence in
their democracy. The very base of it is people’s right to have their vote cast
and counted.”
He still has that famous rich gravelly baritone voice that for 45 years was the sound of truth to Americans; it was all I could to not ask him to say "And that's the way it is..", but is notably self-effacing, "I'm an icon, which means I'm an old fart." Not so, Walter.