by  Michael Hammerschlag


                        Forecast                                                      Actuality

Sept 22 '01 Warned of Attacks through Postal System                               Oct '01  Series of Mailed Anthrax Episodes

July 14 '01 Predicted Palestinian/Moslem attack on NYC or DC            Sept 11 Coordinated Terrorist Attacks on NYC + DC
                   (see also below Aug 00: collapse of talks augers violence)

June ’89  Predicted collapse of Warsaw Pact +                                             Nov ’89  Berlin Wall Falls, Within 18

Possible end of Cold War                                                                                   months Eastern Block free


Nov ’90   Predicted length, conduct, and outcome of Gulf War                   March ’91  Gulf War lasts 6 weeks in staggering

(4-8 weeks, greatest aerial assault, overwhelming victory)                           victory with almost no casualties; Missiles

Argued desert would allow total visibility to high-tech weapons                               devastate buildings like video game


June ’97   Forecast liberalization of Iran under Khatami                               Sept ’98   Fatwa against Rushdie lifted

+ probable lifting of Salmon Rushdie contract                                                Iran has soccer tournament w US; Liberalization

continues against murderous religious opposition


July ’97    Criticized corrupt Hawaii Bishop Estate-                                       July- Sept 97  Gov. orders massive investigation of

                Largest ‘charity’ in coun. + obviously fixed HI gas prices                           Bishop Es., Later 10 year price-fixing

                ($12 billion)                                 ($1.67-1.90/g- 2x mainland)                           prosecution of oil companies brought


Oct ’97    Predicted faster, better, cheaper NASA policy was                     Dec ’99   Titan + Delta 3 launches fail – Aug ’98,

                cutting corners that would lead to disasters                                                   Mars Orbiter + Polar Lander missions lost


Aug ’00    Predicted Lieberman’s choice would lead to Gore’s                    Dec ’00    Gore “loses” after electoral dead-heat

                defeat; If he ran from Monica, would also run from                                       when he doesn’t mention past and spurns

economic boom + Clinton campaign talents                                                    Clinton’s help; Loses TN + AR


Aug ’00    Warned collapse of Middle East talks would lead to                  Dec’00      Over 350 killed in bitter fighting; no end in

                huge eruption of violence; Maybe end in Arab expulsion                           sight; Hard-liners close to taking power in Israel

                fm West Bank + increased terrorism against US                                             USS Cole blown up


Feb ’97     Warned of dangers of Chinas burgeoning wealth +                    July ’99-2000     Brutal crackdown on Falun Gong

                power/ intimidating Taiwan, firing missiles, Spratley Is                                                despite WTO and MFN membership

                takeover, Tibet brutalization                                                                                              consideration


July ’93     Derided sanctions as ineffective moral sop to wealthy             Mar ’99   Years of sanctions fail to stop

nations that hurts weak + innocent in offending co. (Iraq),                          Serbian ethnic cleansing; NATO starts mass

not rulers;  Hard to stop + lose raison d’etre (Cuba)                                     bombing; Serbians retreat fm Kosovo in June


Aug ’93     Warned criminal violence and Mafiya control would                ’95-’97    Oligarchs and Mafiya chieftains control virtually all

                be situation in Russia for decades                                                                    business; Contract killings common; Oligarchs

appointed  to government

 Feb ’84      Analyzed media’s ability to cover wars in Vietnam, +               Jan ’91     Press is rigidly controlled in Gulf War, not allowed

                Predicted new restrictive policies in Grenada, Lebanon, Falklands             free movement or to talk to soldiers without officers

                was ominous trend that could change government- press                           present; Reporters set out on their own + are

                relations forever                                                                                                   captured  + tortured by Iraqis


Dec ’80      Predicted Soviet crackdown on Poland inevitable,                    Dec ’81     Soviet Union forces Jaruzelski to enact martial

                otherwise revolutionary fervor would spread                                                 law; imprisons Walesa + Solidarity members


Dec ’79      Predicted Iran hostage crisis would, without decisive              Jan ‘81      Hostages released after 1¼  years; Damages US

                action, become endless grinding humiliating sideshow                                self-image more than any event but Vietnam;

                                                                                                                                                Destroys Carter’s candidacy